What would the travel industry look like in an independent Cape?

For centuries the southern tip of Africa has captured the imagination of travellers from across the globe. Ever since the first explorers landed at the foot of Table Mountain in the Cape of Good Hope, a steady stream of adventurers have landed, many never to leave.

Up until the water crisis of 2018, the Western Cape has one of the most stable and steadily-growing tourism industries in South Africa. In 2018, the Western Cape reported an increase in the number of international visitors of 11.5% from the previous year, as well as a growing number of off-season visitors.

The Western Cape, and Cape Town in particular – which has been ranked as the top tourist city on the continent – is an incredibly popular tourist destination with the majority of international tourists to South Africa visiting the province. It is the most developed tourism region in South Africa, and the tourism industry in the Western Cape is one of the fastest-growing industries in South Africa.

If the Western Cape has so much to offer on a tourism front, then surely South Africa would rank among the top tourist economies in the world; but it doesn’t.

We know that tourism in the Western Cape is already a huge economic driver and makes up a large portion of the province’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We also know that tourism in the Western Cape has been growing consistently over the last decade. What this tells us is that the wealth of tourist attractions that are on offer in the province are a valuable resource with massive potential for even more growth.

So what is it that is holding the tourism industry in South Africa back? Even the smallest tourist economies in Europe are on par with South Africa’s. Is the problem related to being outside of what is considered to be the ‘developed world’? Well, we can look at similar countries in Eastern Europe and Asia with tourism economies that completely dwarf that of South Africa’s. So with a wealth of tourist attractions - everything from diverse people and cultures, to gorgeous beaches, coastlines, and even natural wonders - what is it that South Africa needs to remedy in order to discover its full potential as a world tourism giant?

One massive speed bump in the path towards unlocking the full potential of tourism in the Western Cape can be found by doing the first bit of research that a potential traveller would likely do - a Google search.

Searching for “Western Cape tourism” in Google brings up, among other things, common questions that are related to this search. Among these questions, “Is Cape Town safe for tourists?”, and “How dangerous is Cape Town?” are two of the most frequently asked.

South Africa as a country does come with a gritty international reputation. High crime rates and the fear of becoming a victim to crime is a serious deterrent to those who are looking to have a holiday in the Western Cape. Multiple source market countries such as the USA and United Kingdom - two of the top overseas source market countries for inbound visitors to South Africa - have issued travel safety warnings for those who are travelling to South Africa. In global media, South Africa is commonly portrayed as an unsafe and violent country, and has been given (earned?) the shameful name of “the rape capital of the world”.

While the actual numbers of violent crimes have somewhat decreased over the last couple of decades, they are still a key factor in a tourists decision of whether or not they are going to visit South Africa at all. The reality is that - regardless of what the actual numbers may be - the risk that tourists feel that they may be taking by visiting South Africa has a massive negative impact on the growth of the tourism industry in the country. The actual crime statistics are often less important to tourists than the perception of crime that exists in the country.

If crime was reduced, and the perception of the Western Cape in particular as a global hotspot for violent crime could be managed, what would that mean for the tourism industry?

A 2011 study by Busani Moyo and Emmanuel Ziramba showed that violent crime is one of the largest factors affecting tourist inflows to South Africa. The study concluded that should better strategies for dealing with crime - such as increased security infrastructure and police visibility - be implemented, the tourism industry would be able to grow quickly and sustainably. This, in turn, results in equivalent growth in job creation and poverty alleviation. If a meaningful change is made in the crime rates and the international perception of those crime rates, it is entirely possible that South Africa would be able to boast one of the strongest tourist economies in the world.

Despite the barrier that crime presents to meaningful growth in the tourism industry, the industry is still growing. An estimated 4.4% of South African jobs were directly created through tourism activities in the last quarter of 2019. By removing the obstacle that crime presents to growth in this industry, we can look at the value of tourism in similar countries that do not have the same reputation for violent crime that South Africa does.

One example of such a country would be Australia. If South Africa’s tourism industry matched that of Australia's, that would mean a growth of more than 400%. This would also mean a similar - if not larger - growth in job creation, as more and more people are afforded opportunities to work in the tourism industry. If this type of growth were to happen, the quality of life improvements we could potentially see would be colossal.

The hope, then, is that an independent Western Cape would be able to drastically reduce those crime numbers and manage international perceptions; which would, in turn, make the prospect of visiting that much more attractive. The more barriers to tourism growth that can be removed, the more value we can get out of the incredible natural and cultural resources the Western Cape has to offer; as well as affording the people who make up the province a far higher quality standard of living. A place that is already one of the world’s leading tourist destinations being able to determine its own reputation could turn this popular travel spot, into a world tourism powerhouse.